Another Look at DC, NYC Homicide Rates (We Still Lose)

Since posting two pieces on DC’s murder rate being 4.56 times higher than New York City’s, there have been some very good comments and questions about the validity of comparing Washington, DC’s homicide rate with that of New York City. Some said that for a more accurate comparison, you should add the homicide rates of suburban jurisdictions with DC and then compare it to New York City.

For the sake of comparisons, I did just that, adding five surrounding jurisdictions to DC. I lumped the Maryland counties of Montgomery and Prince George’s, and the Virginia counties of Fairfax and Arlington along with Alexandria City in with DC. These six jurisdictions have 3,725,610 people (2008 estimates) with 274 murders 2009. New York City has 8,363,710 people (2008 estimate) with 461 murders in 2009.

The DC Metro area comes out badly compared to New York City. The DC Metro area, as defined above, had a homicide rate of 7.35 homicides per 100,000 people in 2009 (it was 9.88 in 2008). New York City‘s homicide rate last year was 5.51 homicides per 100,000 people (it was 6.3 in 2008).

Bottom line: The DC metro area, as defined here, has a homicide rate that is 33% greater than New York City. If you compare city versus city, the final 2009 numbers show that DC’s homicide rate last year was 4.32 times that of New York City.

Moreover, the range of homicide rates in New York City’s five boroughs was not nearly as great compared to the range in the six DC-area jurisdictions. In New York, the rate goes from 3.28 homicides per 100,000 people in Staten Island to 7.82 in Brooklyn.

In the six DC-area jurisdictions, the rate ranges from 0.95 homicides per 100,000 people in Arlington to 23.88 in DC.

Homicide stats by jurisdiction are below the fold.

DC-Area and New York City Homicide Rates in 2009

Six DC-Area Jurisdictions	Population (2008)	Homicides in 2009	Homicides per 100,000 People
Washington, DC	600,000¹	143	23.83
Montgomery County, MD	950,680	13	1.36
Prince George’s County, MD	820,852	100	12.18
Fairfax County, VA	1,015,302	11	1.08
Arlington County, VA	209,969	2	0.95
Alexandria City, VA	136,974²	5	3.65
Total for six DC-area jurisdictions	3,725,610	274	7.35
New York City’s Five Boroughs³	Population (2008)	Homicides in 2009	Homicides Per 100,000 People
Bronx	1,391,903	108	7.75
Manhattan	1,634,795	58	3.54
Queens	2,293,007	79	3.44
Brooklyn	2,556,598	200	7.82
Staten Island	487,407	16	3.28
Total for New York City	8,363,710	461	5.51

¹ Estimate for 2009 year-end population of DC is 600,000.
² Estimate for Alexandria is 2006.
³ Each of New York City’s boroughs is also a county: Bronx/Bronx County; Manhattan/New York County; Queens/Queens County; Brooklyn/Kings County; and Staten Island/Richmond County.