2011 Borderstan Crime: More Thefts from Autos Drive Crime Rate Up

From last week: New Police Service Areas Take Effect January 1.

From Cody Telep. Follow him on Twitter @codywt, email him at [email protected].

The total number of serious crime incidents in Borderstan increased about 14% in 2011 compared to 2010, based on a review of crime data from the DC Data Catalog. This increase was driven largely by an upsurge in property crime (which grew by 18.4%), not by violent crime (which actually decreased 3.8%).

The breakdown by Police Service Areas (PSAs) is below. In 2011, the Borderstan area was primarily part of three PSAs: 305 (U Street), 307 (Logan), and 208 (Dupont) with a small portion in 308 (Convention Center). Let me remind you that these PSA boundaries are changing for 2012: New Police Service Areas Take Effect January 1.

All four of these PSAs showed crime increases in 2011 compared to 2010, with the greatest percentage increase in PSA 208. Note that these figures only represent the part of each PSA that falls in the Borderstan coverage area.

Police Service Area (PSA)	2010 Crimes	2011 Crimes	% Change
305 (U Street)	735	814	+10.7%
307 (Logan)	716	787	+9.9%
308 (Convention Center)	126	142	+12.7%
208 (Dupont)	836	1013	+21.2%
Total:	2413	2756	+14.2%

As noted earlier, a review of offense types in 2010 and 2011 shows that violent crime levels stayed fairly steady in 2011, while some property crime categories showed increases. Assaults with a deadly weapon showed a very slight increase and robberies declined about 6.5%. While the numbers for homicides are quite small, compared to the five that occurred in 2010, 2011 saw just one homicide (although a second was committed adjacent to Borderstan’s boundaries).

The biggest jump came in thefts from auto, which increased from 748 in 2010 to a shocking 1,115 in 2011: an increase of about 49%. The combination of thefts and thefts from auto make up 71.2% of serious crime incidents in Borderstan, up from 64.8% in 2010. Stolen cars, however, declined by nearly 24% from 192 in 2010 to 146 in 2011.

Offense	2010 Frequency	2010 %	2011 Frequency	2011 %
Assault with a Deadly Weapon	111	4.6	118	4.3
Arson	1	0.0	1	0.0
Burglary	203	8.4	213	7.7
Homicide	5	0.2	1	0.0
Robbery	322	13.3	301	10.9
Sex Abuse	15	0.6	16	0.6
Stolen Auto	192	8.0	146	5.3
Theft	816	33.8	845	30.7
Theft from Auto	748	31.0	1,115	40.5
Total:	2,413	100.0	2,756	100.0

What were the “hottest” blocks for crime incidents in 2011? The full year data paint a similar picture to our earlier analysis for the first ten months of 2011 (Crime in Borderstan: Do You Live on a “Hot” Street Block?). The 1400 block of P Street NW ended up as the “hottest” block, totaling 47 incidents, one more than the 1300 block of U Street NW. The top three blocks in terms of total incidents stayed the same in 2011 as in 2010.

There were some notable changes in the top 10 crime-ridden streets in 2011 compared to 2010. The 1000 block of U Street NW, for example, saw a sharp rise in incidents from 12 in 2010 to 35 in 2011. The 1400 block of R Street NW saw a marked decline from 30 incidents in 2010 to just 12 in 2011. This same block, however, was the site of an early evening shooting in November (Thursday 5pm Shooting, 1400 Block of R Street NW).

 

2011			2010
Rank	Street Block	Crimes	Rank	Street Block	Crimes
1.	1400 B/O P Street NW	47	1.	1400 B/O P Street NW	46
2.	1300 B/O U Street NW	46	2.	1300 B/O U Street NW	43
3.	1600 B/O Connecticut Avenue NW	36	3.	1600 B/O Connecticut Avenue NW	37
4.	1000 B/O U Street NW	35	4.	1500 B/O Connecticut Avenue NW	35
5.	1500 B/O Connecticut Avenue NW	28	5.	1400 B/O R Street NW	30
6.	1700 B/O P Street NW	27	5.	1400 B/O Rhode Island Avenue NW	30
7.	1200 B/O U Street NW	26	7.	Dupont Circle	28
8.	1700 B/O T Street NW	25	8.	1200 B/O U Street NW	25
8.	1900 B/O 14th Street NW	25	9.	1700 B/O Connecticut Avenue NW	23
10.	1800 B/O 14th Street NW	24	9.	1400 B/O U Street NW	23
			9.	1700 B/O Massachusetts Avenue NW	23

An important reminder on these data and analyses: incidents can be reclassified or removed later, and so the numbers presented here should not be seen as exact and can be subject to later modification and correction.